A clear interdependence exists between CO2 levels and mean global temperature that has nothing to do with politics, business or other forms of personal interest; people are naturally concerned with self-preservation in many forms: greed, aknowledgement, self-righteousness and general bias; but these passions and concerns drive men to point out potential catastrophies and to feel the motivation to act on perhaps righteous presumptions.

Beyond economic reprecussions of an oil crunch, there may, in fact, be other significant dangers in buring an excessive amount of fossile fuels. To address both economic and environmental concerns, a very simple and very practical solution already exists.

EFFICIENCY. EFFICIENCY. EFFICIENCY… Should I say it again?

I’m not talking about anything ridiculous here. You don’t need to wash dishes with bath water or flush the toilet once a month. Nothing idiotic like that.

I’m just saying that many industries need a good, swift kick in the ass with some very progressive government-imposed regulation. And it starts with efficiency.

Sullykid wrote:
“The oil production as a bell curve model does not quite work for me. Oil production does not drive supply, the demand drives supply.”

Well, that’s not entirely true. The oil and auto industries have had a mutual understanding for years. So long as the US auto companies kept making gas guzzlers, OPEC would keep U.S. oil costs down. For over 40 years now, the fuel efficiency of cars has not changed a bit. Do you think 40 mpg is pretty good? Would you say 70 mpg is more than impressive? How about 300 mpg? Ridiculous? Unheard of? NOT SO! We’ve the technology and the production expertise to affordably produce 300 mpg full-sized sedans. I should know. I am a mechanical engineer with experience in the area. And we’ve known how to do it since the 70’s. The technologies (nothing all that impressive) have not been implemented because of the various types of vehicles that use gasoline and the upper limit on their efficiency (boats, semis, trains)… think about it and consider inelastic demand.

So, Sullykid, demand does not necessarily drive supply here. Big oil controls both, but they are slowly losing their grip.

The problem here is monsterous, which is why it has been addressed so pussily (new word to describe congress – they act pussily). The stability of muslim nations, the auto industry, the plastics industry … almost all industries, and global economies hinges on the modest health and stability (beta) of the energy markets.

While a think another Great Depression is possible, and it could cause WWIII, I don’t think it has to. We’re smart. We already have alternative fuels and we know how to make efficient products efficiently. I think our present problem is the fact that we have so many frickin viable alternatives. We need to outline a course of action and go with it.

I think competition between companies will keep development as far ahead of the crash as is possible. Companies will have to keep developing their own alternatives for fear of a competitor having an alternative that they are in a position to deliver first. If they don’t, then they’ll lose out to those competitors when the time comes, and that’s not a point I can see them missing or ignoring. Of course, it’ll have to be hushed up until they need it for fear of leaks and backlash, so we’ll probably never know until it’s rolled out.

Dirigibles and balloons faster than 500 mph? In the 1800s people would be amazed at speeds of 50 mph. Where are you getting your figures?